翻译

来源：Oct 21st 2010 经济学人杂志

Global house prices

全球房价

Floor to ceiling

从低谷到峰值

Our latest round-up shows that prices are on the rise in most markets

我们最近的总结表明大多数市场的房价都在上涨。

THIS time last year, The Economist’s survey of global house prices was a sea of negative numbers. That was then. Of the 20 markets tracked in our latest survey, only four still posted year-on-year declines and only Ireland’s property catastrophe has worsened. (America’s FHFA index, which excludes houses that are financed with large mortgages, was also down, but the country’s Case-Shiller national and ten-city indices rose modestly.)

去年这个时候，《经济学人》关于全球房价的调查是一片消极的数字。时过境迁。在我们追踪调查的20个市场中，只有4个市场的房价同比下跌，只有爱尔兰的房地产灾难有所恶化。（美国的FHFA指数也有所下降，该指数不包括受大量抵押贷款资助的住房，但是美国全国和10个城市的凯斯席勒指数适度上升。）

Asia’s price rises lead the way, as they did when the data were last published in July. Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia boast the gaudiest year-on-year price increases, even if the rate of appreciation is down a bit from the summer. House prices in China rose by 9.1% in the year to September, compared with a 12.4% rise in May. That is still too fast for the government, which unexpectedly raised interest rates on October 19th and has outlined more measures to cool the market in recent weeks, including higher down-payment requirements and the introduction of a property tax in some cities.

亚洲的房价一路领先，与7月最近一次公布的表现一样。新加坡、和澳大利亚的房价同比上涨速度最快，尽管与夏季相比，上升速度有所放缓。截止今年9月，中国的房价上涨了9.1%，而5月份的涨幅为12.4%。这样的上涨速度对中国来说还是太快了，在10月19日出人意料地提高了利率并在最近几周制定了更多的措施为市场降温，其中包括提高首付款和在一些城市开征房产税。

Our analysis of “fair value” in housing, which is based on comparing the current ratio of house prices to rents with its long-run average, suggests that China has less to worry about than the likes of Australia, which is again the most overvalued of the markets we track. That makes it all the more surprising that Australia’s central bank opted not to increase its benchmark interest rate this month.

我们的住房“公平价值”分析是建立在比较当前的房价与租价比率和其长期的平均值基础之上的。该分析表明中国不必像澳大利亚等国那样担忧，澳大利亚再次成为我们追踪的市场中高估程度最严重的市场。这使澳大利亚央行本月不提高其基准利率更加令人惊讶了。

Europe shows a familiar split ween core countries and peripheral ones. Ireland, Spain and Italy continue to suffer year-on-year price declines; German and French homes have shown big gains in value over the past year, a particular turnaround for France since our previous round-up. The British housing sector’s talent for defying gravity may be on the wane. The pace of annual appreciation in the country’s property market has slowed over the summer. British housing is still overvalued—outright falls may loom.

欧洲显示的核心和边缘之间的差别耳熟能详。爱尔兰、西班牙和意大利的房价仍然同比下跌，德国和法国的住房价格在过去一年大幅攀升，尤其是法国在我们的上一次总结之后获得了转机。英国房地产业的房价防跌能力可能正在减弱。该房地产市场在整个夏季年增长速度有所放缓。但是英国的房价还是被高估了——可能即将大幅下跌。

America’s housing market, almost alone among those which experienced a big bubble, is more or less fairly valued at this point, at least according to price-to-rent ratios. But price rises may not last for long. Earlier gains were driven by substantial reward programmes and government subsidies, many of which have now lapsed. America’s overhang of housing inventory may get worse if concerns over lenders’ foreclosure processes jam up sales. The temptation for the country’s 11m underwater borrowers to walk away is another threat (see Economics Focus). And being at or below fair value is no guarantee of a bounce in prices: Japanese housing fell by 4% in the year to the end of the first quarter, despite being stuck far below its long-run price-to-rents ratio.

美国的楼市几乎是那些经历过巨大的楼市中，当前价值基本公平的唯一市场，至少根据房价与租价的比率来判断是如此。但是房价上涨可能不会持续太久。先前的涨势是由大量的回报计划和补贴驱动的，现在其中的许多政策已经失效。如果人们担心放贷者的没收房产程序会阻碍销，美国的住房空置情况可能恶化。吸引1100万抵押贷款高于其住房价值的借贷者离开的又是一种威胁。处于或低于公平价值根本无法保证房价反弹：尽管远低于其长期房价与租价比率，截止今年第一季度末，房价下跌了4%。